How big is the agentic commerce market?

McKinsey projects agentic commerce will generate $3 to $5 trillion annually worldwide by 2030 (Oct 2025). For the U.S. specifically, Morgan Stanley estimates $190 billion by 2030 in its base case (about 10% of U.S. e-commerce), while Bain & Company estimates 15% to 25% of U.S. e-commerce will run through AI agents by 2030.

How many shopping queries does ChatGPT handle?

ChatGPT processes roughly 50 million shopping queries per day, according to OpenAI (Feb 2026).

How fast is AI shopping traffic growing?

AI-driven retail traffic grew 805% year over year during Black Friday 2025 (Adobe Analytics). AI influenced $67 billion in global Cyber Week sales and touched 20% of all orders (Salesforce, Dec 2025).

Agentic Commerce Statistics 2026 (Cited Data)

Market size & forecasts

$3-5TProjected annual agentic commerce volume globally by 2030Source: McKinsey (Oct 2025)

$190BU.S. agentic commerce by 2030 (Morgan Stanley base case), ~10% of U.S. e-commerceSource: Morgan Stanley AlphaWise (Nov 2025)

$385BMorgan Stanley higher-end projection for U.S. agentic commerce by 2030Source: Morgan Stanley (Nov 2025)

15-25%Share of U.S. e-commerce expected to run through AI agents by 2030Source: Bain & Company (Dec 2025)

Consumer adoption

45%U.S. consumers who used ChatGPT in the prior monthSource: Morgan Stanley AlphaWise (2,000 U.S. consumers) (Nov 2025)

45%Consumers already using AI for some part of the buying journeySource: IBM Institute for Business Value (Jan 2026)

38%Consumers who have used generative AI for online shoppingSource: Adobe (2025)

393%Year-over-year growth in AI-referred traffic to U.S. retailers (Q1 2026)Source: Adobe Analytics (Apr 2026)

AI shopping traffic & scale

50M/dayShopping queries processed by ChatGPT dailySource: OpenAI (Feb 2026)

800MChatGPT weekly active users, the largest AI shopping audienceSource: OpenAI (2026)

300MUsers served by Amazon's AI shopping assistant RufusSource: Amazon (2026)

805%Year-over-year growth in AI-driven retail traffic during Black Friday 2025Source: Adobe Analytics (Dec 2025)

$67BGlobal AI-influenced Cyber Week sales (AI touched 20% of all orders)Source: Salesforce (Dec 2025)

Conversion & revenue impact

~7xBetter sales growth for retailers with AI agent integration vs those without (Cyber Week 2025)Source: Salesforce (Dec 2025)

42%Higher conversion for AI-referred traffic vs human-driven search traffic (Q1 2026)Source: Adobe Analytics (Apr 2026)

38%Higher purchase-completion rate for AI-referred visitors (Black Friday 2025)Source: Adobe Analytics (Dec 2025)

20%Share of all Cyber Week orders that AI touchedSource: Salesforce (Dec 2025)

Protocols & infrastructure

1M+Shopify merchants live or onboarding for AI agent checkout via ACPSource: OpenAI / Stripe (2026)

Sep 2025Launch of the Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP) by Stripe and OpenAI (Apache 2.0)Source: Stripe / OpenAI (Sep 2025)

NRF 2026Debut of Google's Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP) for the full commerce journeySource: Google (Jan 2026)

FreeProduct discovery in ChatGPT Shopping for merchants (no listing fee)Source: OpenAI (2026)

Keep reading

Agentic Commerce: The 2026 Guide for Retailers — what it is, how it works, and how to get ready.
Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP), Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP), and Model Context Protocol (MCP) explained.
The full agentic commerce glossary — 40+ terms.

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Agentic Commerce Statistics (2026)