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Definitive Guide -- Updated February 2026

What Is Agentic Commerce?

Agentic commerce is the use of AI agents to autonomously research, recommend, and complete purchases on behalf of consumers, replacing traditional browse-and-buy shopping with intent-driven, conversational transactions.

Instead of a consumer visiting a website, scrolling through product listings, comparing options across tabs, and manually entering payment details, an AI agent handles all of it. A shopper says, “Find me waterproof hiking boots under $150 that can arrive by Friday,” and the agent searches multiple retailers, compares prices, checks reviews, verifies availability, and completes the purchase -- all within a single conversation.

This is not a theoretical future. ChatGPT processes 50 million shopping queries daily (OpenAI, Feb 2026). Amazon's AI assistant Rufus serves 300 million users. The infrastructure is live, the consumers are there, and the spending is real.

McKinsey projects agentic commerce will generate $3 to $5 trillion annually by 2030 (McKinsey, Oct 2025). Morgan Stanley's base case estimates $190 billion in the U.S. alone by 2030, roughly 10% of all U.S. e-commerce (Morgan Stanley AlphaWise, Nov 2025). Bain & Company puts the figure at 15% to 25% of U.S. e-commerce by 2030 (Bain, Dec 2025).

The shift is already measurable. During Black Friday 2025, AI-driven traffic to retail sites surged 805% year-over-year, according to Adobe Analytics. Salesforce reported $67 billion in global AI-influenced Cyber Week sales, with AI touching 20% of all orders. Retailers with AI agent integrations saw roughly 7x better sales growth than those without (Salesforce data, Dec 2025).

How Agentic Commerce Works

Agentic commerce connects the consumer, the AI agent, and the merchant through standardized protocols that enable discovery, evaluation, and purchase within a single conversational flow.

The process typically unfolds in four stages:

1. Intent Capture. The consumer describes what they want in natural language. “I need a birthday gift for my sister, she likes skincare, budget $75.” The AI agent interprets this intent, extracting product category, price constraints, recipient preferences, and urgency.

2. Discovery and Matching. The agent queries merchant product catalogs using structured data feeds. Unlike traditional search engines that rank web pages, AI agents evaluate product attributes directly -- price, availability, shipping speed, reviews, and relevance to the stated intent. Merchants whose catalogs are optimized for machine readability get recommended. Those with incomplete or unstructured data get skipped.

3. Evaluation and Recommendation. The agent compares options across multiple merchants, weighing factors the consumer specified. It presents a curated shortlist with reasoning: “This moisturizer from Brand X has 4.8 stars, ships free in 2 days, and fits your budget at $68.” The consumer reviews and approves.

4. Transaction Execution. The agent completes the purchase using stored payment credentials, handles shipping selection, and confirms the order -- all within the chat interface. Some platforms support fully autonomous purchasing for low-risk items, while higher-value transactions require explicit consumer approval.

This four-stage flow is enabled by a growing ecosystem of open protocols. The Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP), developed by Stripe and OpenAI, powers ChatGPT's Instant Checkout feature. Google's Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP), launched at NRF 2026, covers the full commerce journey from discovery to post-purchase. Anthropic's Model Context Protocol (MCP) provides the data connectivity layer that lets agents access real-time inventory, pricing, and product details.

Why Agentic Commerce Matters Now

Three converging forces have turned agentic commerce from a concept into an operational reality: consumer adoption has hit critical mass, platform infrastructure is production-ready, and open protocol standards are emerging.

Consumer adoption is accelerating faster than mobile commerce did. According to a Morgan Stanley AlphaWise survey of 2,000 U.S. consumers (Nov 2025), 45% had used ChatGPT in the prior month. A January 2026 IBM Institute for Business Value study found 45% of consumers already use AI for some part of the buying journey. And 38% of consumers have used generative AI for online shopping, per Adobe (2025).

Platform infrastructure is production-ready. ChatGPT's Instant Checkout, which evolved from early shopping integrations in late 2025, is now live for all U.S. users, enabling direct purchases inside the chat interface. Etsy and over 1 million Shopify merchants are live. Google launched AI Mode with agentic checkout capabilities, with Wayfair, Chewy, and Etsy among early participants. Microsoft Copilot supports checkout via ACP. Perplexity offers instant purchasing through its PayPal-powered shopping feature.

Open protocol standards are reducing integration complexity. Before September 2025, connecting to AI shopping channels meant custom integration for each platform. The launch of ACP (Sep 2025), followed by MCP's rapid enterprise adoption, and UCP's debut at NRF 2026 (Jan 2026), has created a standardized foundation.

The financial stakes are significant. Adobe Analytics data shows AI-referred visitors have a 38% higher purchase completion rate compared to traditional search visitors (Adobe, Black Friday 2025). Retailers with AI agent integration saw roughly 7x better sales growth during Cyber Week 2025 than those without (Salesforce data, Dec 2025).

Who's Already Doing It

Major retailers are live or launching on agentic commerce platforms, including Etsy and over 1 million Shopify merchants, with Walmart and Target announced as upcoming partners.

ChatGPT Instant Checkout (ACP)

Etsy, Glossier, SKIMS, Spanx, Vuori, and over 1 million Shopify merchants are live or rolling out on ChatGPT's Instant Checkout, with Walmart and Target announced as upcoming partners, powered by the Agentic Commerce Protocol and Stripe. Merchants pay a 4% fee on completed purchases. OpenAI reports that Instant Checkout items are not preferred in product results -- the feature is purely transactional (OpenAI, Feb 2026).

Stripe Agentic Commerce Suite

Stripe's Agentic Commerce Suite, launched December 2025, enables merchants to sell through any ACP-compatible AI agent. URBN (Anthropologie, Free People, Urban Outfitters), Coach, Kate Spade, Revolve, Ashley Furniture, and Etsy are live (Stripe, Dec 2025).

Google AI Mode and UCP

Google launched the Universal Commerce Protocol at NRF 2026 with co-development from Shopify, Etsy, Wayfair, and Target. UCP is endorsed by 20+ partners including Stripe, Visa, Mastercard, Adyen, American Express, Best Buy, Macy's, Home Depot, and Zalando (Google, Jan 2026).

Amazon Rufus

Amazon's AI shopping assistant Rufus serves 300 million users and drove an estimated $12 billion in incremental sales in 2025. Amazon's “Buy for Me” feature attempts to purchase products from third-party websites on behalf of consumers (Business Insider, Jan 2026).

Perplexity Shopping

Perplexity's PayPal-powered shopping feature enables instant purchasing within search results. With over 45 million monthly active users and a $20 billion valuation, Perplexity has become a significant AI commerce channel (Perplexity, 2025).

The Protocol Landscape

Five major protocols govern how AI agents interact with merchant systems. Each serves a different function, and most retailers will eventually need to support multiple protocols.

ProtocolDeveloperLaunchedPrimary FunctionKey Partners
ACPStripe / OpenAISep 2025Checkout and payment flowsChatGPT, Copilot, 1M+ Shopify merchants
UCPGoogle / ShopifyJan 2026Full commerce journeyVisa, Mastercard, Adyen, Best Buy, Macy's, 20+ partners
MCPAnthropic → Linux FoundationNov 2024Data connectivity and context sharing97M+ monthly SDK downloads, 10,000+ servers
AP2GoogleSep 2025Secure agentic paymentsMastercard, PayPal, Amex, Adobe, 60+ partners
A2AGoogle → Linux FoundationApr 2025Agent-to-agent interoperability150+ organizations

The protocol landscape is converging. UCP was explicitly designed to be compatible with AP2, A2A, and MCP. A retailer who supports UCP and ACP covers the major AI shopping channels today. Infrastructure platforms like Paz.ai handle multi-protocol compliance through a single integration, translating merchant catalogs into the format each protocol requires.

How Retailers Can Get Started

Retailers have three approaches: platform-native (fastest), infrastructure partner (balanced), or custom build (maximum control).

Approach 1: Platform-Native (Fastest)

Shopify merchants are already auto-enrolled in ChatGPT shopping and Google AI Mode through their existing Shopify feeds. This provides baseline visibility with zero additional work. The tradeoff: no optimization, no branded experience, and limited control over how products appear to AI agents.

Approach 2: Infrastructure Partner (Balanced)

Platforms like Paz.ai connect existing product catalogs to multiple AI shopping channels through a single integration. This approach adds catalog optimization (rewriting product descriptions for AI comprehension), multi-protocol compliance, and analytics -- typically going live in 2-4 weeks.

Approach 3: Custom Build (Maximum Control)

Large retailers like Albertsons have built proprietary AI shopping assistants integrated with their loyalty programs, inventory systems, and fulfillment operations. Albertsons aims to reduce average shopping time from 46 minutes to 4 minutes. This approach requires significant engineering investment ($10M+) and 12-18 months of development, but delivers maximum differentiation.

Most mid-market retailers will start with Approach 1 or 2 and layer on custom capabilities over time. The critical first step is ensuring your product catalog is machine-readable -- AI agents cannot recommend products they cannot understand.

Agentic Commerce vs Traditional Ecommerce

The shift changes how products are discovered, evaluated, and purchased -- from human-driven browsing to AI-driven matching and recommendation.

AspectTraditional EcommerceAgentic Commerce
DiscoveryConsumer searches keywords on Google/AmazonAI agent matches intent to structured product data
EvaluationConsumer compares products across tabs/sitesAgent evaluates and ranks options automatically
Decision MakerHuman consumerAI agent (with human approval)
CheckoutConsumer fills forms on merchant websiteAgent completes purchase inside conversation
OptimizationSEO: keywords, backlinks, page speedGEO/AEO: structured data, answer density, freshness
Conversion Rate2-3% average38% higher for AI-referred visitors (Adobe, 2025)
Customer DataMerchant captures all dataVaries by protocol -- UCP preserves merchant ownership

The most consequential shift: in traditional ecommerce, brands compete for consumer attention through design, advertising, and search ranking. In agentic commerce, brands compete for AI agent selection through data quality, protocol compliance, and catalog completeness.

This is why AI visibility -- the discipline of making products discoverable and recommendable by AI agents -- is becoming as critical as SEO was for the search engine era.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the difference between agentic commerce and conversational commerce?+
Conversational commerce uses messaging interfaces (chatbots, WhatsApp, SMS) to facilitate shopping but still requires the consumer to drive the process. Agentic commerce goes further -- the AI agent autonomously researches, evaluates, and executes purchases with minimal human input. The agent makes decisions, not just facilitates conversation.
Which AI platforms currently support agentic commerce?+
As of February 2026, the major platforms are ChatGPT (via Instant Checkout/ACP), Google AI Mode (via UCP/AP2), Perplexity (via PayPal), Microsoft Copilot (via ACP), and Amazon Rufus (proprietary). Meta announced agentic commerce capabilities for Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp in February 2026.
How much does it cost to enable agentic commerce?+
Costs vary by approach. Shopify merchants get baseline AI shopping visibility at no additional cost through auto-enrollment. Dedicated infrastructure platforms charge annual fees ranging from $10,000 to $100,000+ depending on catalog size and features. OpenAI charges merchants a 4% fee on Instant Checkout transactions. Custom builds can exceed $10 million for large enterprises.
What is the Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP)?+
ACP is an open-source protocol developed by Stripe and OpenAI, released under Apache 2.0 license. It defines how AI agents and merchants coordinate checkout flows, including product selection, payment credential sharing, and order confirmation. ACP powers ChatGPT's Instant Checkout and Microsoft Copilot's shopping features. See our ACP glossary entry for a full technical breakdown.
How long does it take to start selling through AI agents?+
Timeline depends on your approach. Shopify merchants with existing product feeds can appear in ChatGPT shopping results immediately. Working with an infrastructure platform like Paz.ai typically takes 2-4 weeks from catalog access to live AI shopping presence. Custom enterprise builds take 6-18 months.
Will agentic commerce replace traditional ecommerce?+
Not replace -- augment. Morgan Stanley estimates agentic AI will account for 10-20% of U.S. e-commerce by 2030 (Morgan Stanley, Nov 2025). Traditional websites will remain the primary channel for most purchases, but an increasing share of product discovery and high-intent purchasing will shift to AI agents. Retailers need both channels.
How do AI agents decide which products to recommend?+
AI agents evaluate products based on structured data quality, relevance to stated intent, price competitiveness, availability, reviews, and merchant trust signals. Unlike Google's PageRank algorithm, which weighs backlinks and domain authority, AI agents prioritize catalog completeness, real-time accuracy, and natural language match to consumer queries. Products with rich, structured attributes and up-to-date inventory data are recommended more frequently.

The Bottom Line

Agentic commerce is live, growing, and already generating measurable revenue for retailers who have adopted it. With 50 million daily shopping queries on ChatGPT alone, 805% year-over-year AI traffic growth, and a projected $3-5 trillion global market by 2030, the question is not whether to prepare -- it is how quickly you can act.

The retailers winning today share three traits: their product catalogs are machine-readable, they support multiple AI commerce protocols, and they optimize their data for AI agent comprehension rather than just human browsing.

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